An international study co-authored by Dr José Manuel Aburto reveals that life expectancy in Mexico declined between 2015 and 2021, before beginning to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
The study is the first of its kind to uncover the effects of violent deaths – particularly high homicide rates – and other causes of death on life expectancy before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Published in the International Journal of Epidemiology, the study uses death certificate data from 2000-2022 to determine how causes of death have led to life expectancy changes across Mexico.
The research identified violence as a leading cause of life expectancy loss before the pandemic, noting that between 2015 and 2019, life expectancy for males in Mexico decreased from 71.8 to 71.1 years. This can be largely attributed to the surge in violent deaths (particularly homicides) in men aged 20-39, which accounted for 54.3% of the total life expectancy decline during this period.
During the same period, female life expectancy stagnated at 77.5 years, with Mexico’s ongoing feminicide crisis thought to have contributed to this lack of growth.
Mexico experienced sizable excess mortality during the pandemic. Between 2019 and 2020, male life expectancy decreased by over seven years to 64.1, while female life expectancy had fallen over four years to 73.1 years. COVID-19 accounted for 55.4% of that change for males and 57.7% for females.
The paper notes that pre-existent health risk factors among the population – such as diabetes, obesity and high prevalence of cardiovascular disease and comorbidities – may have been one of the reasons why Mexico was so heavily affected.
During the first two years of the pandemic, between 2020 and 2021, male life expectancy remained around 64 years, while female life expectancy declined slightly to 72.7 years in 2021.
This difference may be due to varying exposure levels to COVID-19. Men were more likely to work outside the home, increasing their vulnerability earlier in the pandemic (before vaccination programmes), while women were more likely to be unemployed or able to work remotely.
Additionally, with 65% of Mexico’s healthcare workforce being female, women may have faced higher occupational exposure to COVID-19, further contributing to their life expectancy losses in 2021.
The study also found stark regional inequalities in life expectancy losses. States in the southern and central regions of Mexico experienced the largest losses, highlighting the challenges posed by increased violence and socio-economic disparities in these areas.
By 2022, life expectancy was beginning to return to pre-pandemic rates across the country. However, unequal recovery patterns can be seen across regions, most likely driven by sociodemographic characteristics and health inequalities across states. The pandemic placed enormous strain on the healthcare system, particularly in poorer regions of the country, where healthcare infrastructure was often unable to manage the influx of patients.
Dr José Manuel Aburto said:
The implications of this study are not limited to Mexico alone. While Mexico’s challenges are particularly stark, the findings have relevance for other countries in Latin America and beyond.
The combination of violence and pandemics is a growing concern globally, with similar patterns being observed in countries with high homicide rates and fragile healthcare systems.
