A new study co-authored by Professor of Sociology Nan Dirk de Graaf finds that religious commitment typically declines in a strikingly similar way across societies.
After analysing data from over 100 countries, researchers identified a three-step sequence of religious decline, or secularisation.
First, individuals stop taking part in religion publicly, such as by not attending worship services. Next, religion becomes less important to them personally, and finally, they cease to identify with a religion altogether.
The paper, which was published in Nature Communications, shows that this pattern holds in countries where Christianity, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism are the dominant faiths, challenging the idea that religious decline is solely a Western or Christian phenomenon.
The study argues that this secularisation pattern, named by researchers as the Participation–Importance–Belonging (P-I-B) sequence, does not occur within the lifespan of an individual but rather unfolds across generations, often spanning 200 years.
In the process, successive generations drop more demanding practices – such as public ritual attendance – first, and less costly traits – such as religious identity – later.
Different countries are at different stages of the sequence – highly secular European societies are furthest along, while very religious African countries remain near the start. Many nations in the Americas, Asia and Oceania fall somewhere in between.
For example, in Senegal – near the beginning of the sequence – there are large generational differences in public participation of religion. By contrast, in Denmark – where secularisation is advanced – the biggest generational differences are in religious affiliation.
The most religious countries, including Ethiopia, Nigeria, Niger and Mali, show the lowest or even reversed generational differences in religiosity, suggesting that these countries have not yet entered the P-I-B secular transition.
Post-Soviet countries such as Russia, Belarus, Moldova and Georgia appear to be an exception to the pattern, as religious revivals linked to nationalism have obscured longer-term trends.
The paper notes:
Modernisation, secularisation, and resurgence processes are expected to be contingent on highly complex and specific geographic, cultural, and historical conditions.
While we do not doubt that historical contingencies are important, our findings suggest that secularisation processes may be more similar across the world than was previously thought.
However, the study cautions that this does not necessarily imply that the world is becoming less religious in the short term.
The opposite may in fact be true, since countries with a low score on the human development index (HDI) are more religious, have higher fertility rates, and have populations growing at above-average speeds. As a result, in the short to medium term, religiosity could increase globally.
However, if the secular transition outlined here continues, the world will see a decline in religious belief and practice in the long run.
