Speed Data: Why the Remain vote swung sharply—while Leave voters stayed put
Posted: 26 Jun 2017

8th June defied expectations—and unfolded in very different ways in different kinds of seats – Steve Fisher explains in Prospect magazine.

Politicians like to talk of “one nation,” but the EU referendum seared Britain into two political halves—and that’s without reckoning with Scotland, dropped from all these numbers because June’s election proved once again it is another country entirely. Across the English and Welsh constituencies that voted “Remain,” Labour surged ahead, making for a sharp swing of 5.7 percentage points. By contrast, in “Leaveland,” there were lots of former Ukip votes to divide, and the Tories picked up more of them. As a result, both parties advanced in parallel, and our swingometer ticks a mere 1.2 points to the left.

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Stephen Fisher is Director of Graduate Studies, Associate Professor in Political Sociology, Fellow of Trinity College and Department Disability Lead