12 Oct @16:00

Election forecasting

Speaker(s): Steve Fisher

Date: 16:00 on Thu, 12 Oct 2017

Duration: 1 hours

Seminar Series: Other Seminar

Venue:
Nuffield College, New Rd, Oxford OX1 1NF

Stephen Fisher speaks to RSS Oxford

Please join us on Thursday 12 October 2017 for our next event where our speaker will be Stephen Fisher.

Where: Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford, OX1 1NF
What: 4-5pm: Talk by Stephen Fisher; 5-6pm: Tea/Coffee

Election forecasting

This talk will review the experience of attempts to forecast the 2015 and 2017 British general elections and the 2016 Brexit referendum. I will discuss both my own forecasting methods and those of others. The talk will consider issues with the opinion polls that under-pinned many of the forecasts and the extent to which forecasts still rely on opinion polls or whether other data sources, such as betting markets, are more effective. Most of the talk will be accessible to a general audience but there will be some points of detail on the statistical models.

If you would like to learn more about our speaker, please visit his website.