EPOP 2012 Conference, 7th-9th September

The 2012 Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) conference will be held at the University of Oxford, from 7th to 9th September. Registration has closed.

The Twitter hashtag for the conference is #EPOP2012. Tweets on this are at: https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23EPOP2012

News (7th November)

The 2013 EPOP conference will be on September 13-15, at the University of Lancaster. The organiser will be David Denver

News (4th September)

The full conference programme is now available to download here.

News (3rd September)

Emails about accommodation (to those who booked some) and about presentations (to all registered participants) went out on Friday. Please email  epop2012@sociology.ox.ac.uk if you didn't receive one or both of these when you should have.

News (28th August)

First, the original conference website had a section called 'Papers' for posting conference papers or slides. Authors are requested to email either their paper, if possible, or slides to  epop2012@sociology.ox.ac.uk ideally by Monday 3rd September.  We will try to post them as soon as possible after we receive them. Please provide papers or slides in pdf format if possible. This is for the purposes of posting them on the web only. For actual presentations at the conference, Powerpoint, Word and Adobe Acrobat will be available, and you should bring slides on flash drives (usb memory sticks).
Second, Tom Scotto is organising a pre-EPOP event on the topic of public opinion and foreign policy to which you are all welcome. Participation is free to all attendees, but please email  preepop2012@hotmail.co.uk if you are planning to attend.

Joining EPOP

EPOP is the largest specialist group of the Political Studies Association of the UK. Members benefit from a reduced conference registration rate. Details of how to join EPOP are at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/offer/fbep-so.asp.

Please follow the links on the left-hand-side menu for further details.

Stephen Fisher (Convenor)

on behalf of the organising committee

Programme for the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) Conference, University of Oxford, 7-9th September 2012

The full conference programme is now available to download as a pdf here. While we hope that this programme is a close to final as possible we cannot guarantee any of the specific details, such as timings or that all the speakers will be able to come. Please do let us know of any problems or errors. We would like to thank YouGov and Parliamentary Affairs for their generosity in sponsoring the Friday and Saturday night receptions.

Stephen Fisher (Convenor)

On behalf of the organising committee

Friday 7th September 2012

12.00-12.45 Registration and lunch

12.45-14.15 Session 1  

Reactions to diversity
Lecture theatre
Chair: Laura Morales (University of Leicester)

Carlie Fogleman (Texas A&M University) and Paul Kellstedt (Texas A&M University) - The Dynamics of Immigration Attitudes in the U.S.

Tim Bale (University of Sussex) and Rebecca Partos (University of Sussex) - “We are not in politics to ignore peoples’ worries: we are in politics to deal with them.” Why mainstream parties change policy on migration: a UK case study.

Daphne Halikiopoulou (LSE), Steven Mock (University of Waterloo) and Sofia Vasilopoulou (University of York) - The civic Zeitgeist: nationalism and liberal values in the European radical right

Robert Ford (University of Manchester) - Who should receive welfare in a diverse society? Experimental evidence on the impact of ethnicity and foreign birth on willingness to provide welfare in Britain

Perceptions and effects of context
Seminar room G
Chair: Dave Cutts (University of Manchester)

Jake Bowers (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign), Daniel Rubenson (Ryerson University) and Cara Wong (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) - Maps and `Pictures in Our Heads': The Political Effects of Perceptions of Communities

Thomas M. Holbrook (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and Karen Kaufmann (University of Maryland) - Partisan context and Political Behavior in U.S. Cities

Chris W. Bonneau (University of Pittsbugh) and Damon M. Cann (Utah State University) Individual-Level Factors and Voter Participation in Judicial Elections

Lluis Orriols (University of Girona & Juan March Institute) and Álvaro Martínez (University of Barcelona & Juan March Institute) - Ambivalence at the ballot box: The role of the political context on voting indecision

Political reform in the UK

Seminar room A
Chair: Phil Cowley (University of Nottingham)

John Curtice (University of Strathclyde) and Ben Seyd (University of Kent) - Exploring and explaining attitudes to political reform in Britain

Alan Renwick (University of Reading) - The Evolution of Electoral Reform Debate: The Case of the UK

Okan Akmehmet (University of Essex) - Why referendum? The story behind Britain’s 2011 AV referendum

Colin Rallings (Plymouth University), Michael Thrasher (Plymouth University) and David Cowling (BBC) - Mayoral referendums and elections: Uninterested electors and unknowing voters

Political representation in Europe
Seminar room C
Chair: Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham)

Hermann F.J. Schmitt (University of Manchester/University of Mannheim), Bernhard Wessels (Social Science Research Centre Berlin) and Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham) - Parties, Candidates and Voters in the 2009 Election to the European Parliament

Bruno Cautres (Sciences Po Paris) and Laurie Beaudonnet (European University Institute) - Political Retribution, the Economic crisis and the 2009 European elections

Lorenzo De Sio (LUISS Guido Carli), Christine Arnold (Maastricht University) and Eliyahu V. Sapir (Maastricht University) - Learning from second-order elections? The dynamics of issue salience during national and European elections

Federico Vegetti (University of Mannheim) - Don't blame me, I'm on your side. Party system polarization and the balance between ideology and evaluation in Europe

14.15-14.30 Short break

14.30-16.00 Session 2  

Party competition and issue positions
Lecture theatre
Chair: Andrew Russell (University of Manchester)

Jae-Jae Spoon (University of Iowa), Sara B. Hobolt (LSE) and Catherine E. De Vries (University of Geneva) - Going Green:  Explaining Issue Competition on the Environment

Line Rennwald (University of Geneva) and Geoffrey Evans (University of Oxford) - When Supply Creates Demand: Social-democratic parties’ electoral strategies and working class votes

Kostas Gemenis (University of Twente), Alexia Katsanidou (GESIS-Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) & Sofia Vasilopoulou (University of York) - The politics of anti-environmentalism: positional issue framing by the European radical right

Jane Green (University of Manchester) and Will Jennings (Southampton University) - Valence and Government Priorities: How issue ownership and issue salience shape US and U.K. policy agendas

Public opinion and survey measurement
Seminar room G
Chair: Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck, University of London)

Joe Twyman (YouGov) - How Extreme is Extremism?

Will Jennings (University of Southampton) and Christopher Wlezien (Temple University)  - Measuring Public Preferences for Policy: On the Limits of ‘Most Important Problem’

Jon Mellon (University of Oxford) - Internet Search Indices and Issue Salience: the properties of Google Trends as a measure of issue salience

Jeffrey A. Karp (University of Exeter) and Maarja Lühiste (University of Exeter) - Explaining Political Engagement with Online Panels: An Analysis of Data from the British Election Study

Elias Dinas (Univeristy of Oxford) and Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham) - Measuring party identification in multi-party democracies: A functional alternative

Boundary Commission Review
Seminar room A
Chair: Michael Thrasher (Plymouth University)
Discussant: Colin Rallings (Plymouth University)

Ron Johnston (University of Bristol) - ‘Somewhat more disruptive than we had in mind’: dislocation and the fracturing of communities in the Boundary Commission proposals.

David Rossiter (University of Sheffield), Ron Johnston (University of Bristol) and Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield) - Fit for purpose? The impact of the Boundary Commission for England’s decision not to split wards on its proposed constituencies

Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield) - ‘...extremely effective in enabling public discussion’: Public Inquiries, Public Hearings and the redistribution of Parliamentary constituencies

Institutions and party systems
Seminar room C
Chair: Ben Seyd (University of Kent)

Thomas Quinn (University of Essex) - The Decline of Two-Party Systems in the United Kingdom and New Zealand

Andreas E. Murr (University of Essex) - A Tournament of Voters’ Decision Making Rules: Comparing Four Models of Citizen Forecasting

Jack Vowles (Victoria University of Wellington) - Proportional Representation Confirmed: The 2011 Electoral System Referendum in New Zealand

Robin Harding (New York University) - Explaining Party Attachments Across African Democracies

Laura Stephenson (Western University), Marian Bohl (Universität Zürich), Ekrem Karakoc (Université de Montréal), André Blais (Université de Montréal) and Hanspeter Kriesi (Universität Zürich) - Choice, Information and Compexity: Voting Behaviour in Swiss Elections

16.00-16.30 Tea/Coffee

16.30-18.00 Session 3  

Roundtable on developments in British public opinion
Lecture theatre
Chair: Joe Twyman (YouGov)

David Skelton (Deputy Director and Head of Research at Policy Exchange)

Steve Van Riel (Head of Research at The CentreGround Political Communications and former Head of Research and Director of Policy at the Labour Party)

Jess Tyrrell (Deputy Director at the Centre for London)

Anthony Wells (YouGov and author of http://ukpollingreport.co.uk)

David Butler (University of Oxford) – Discussant and Vote of Thanks

Valence voting
Seminar room G
Chair: Sara Hobolt (LSE)

Sergi Pardos-Prado (University of Oxford) - Valence voting and coalition governments

Debra Leiter (University of California, Davis) - The Conditionality of Voter Decision-Making: How Voter Sophistication Conditions the Impact of Ideological Proximity – but not the Impact of Valence – in European Electorates

Nathalie Giger (University of Mannheim) and Catherine E. De Vries (University of Oxford) – Holding Governments Accountable: Individual Heterogeneity in Performance Voting

Markus Wagner (University of Vienna) and Eva Zeglovits (University of Vienna) - Questions about party competence: insights from cognitive interviews

Spyros Kosmidis (LSE) - Electoral Accountability and Length of Office Tenure

Measuring party positions
Seminar room A
Chair: Elias Dinas (University of Oxford)

Martin Dolezal (University of Vienna) - Analysing Manifestos in their Electoral Context: A New Approach with Application to Austria 2002-2008

Didier Ruedin (University of Neuchâtel) and Laura Morales (University of Leicester) - Obtaining Party Positions on Immigration from Party Manifestos

Zeynep Somer-Topcu (Vanderbilt University) - Voters’ Perceptual Ambiguity and Its Electoral Consequences

Turnout inequalities
Seminar room C
Chair: Alan Renwick (University of Reading)

Marius R. Busemeyer (University of Konstanz) and Achim Goerres (University of Duisberg-Essen) - Educational institutions and inequalities of voting participation in advanced industrial democracies

Peter Selb (University of Konstanz) and Marco Steenbergen (University of Zurich) - Studying the Electoral Effect of Incomplete Turnout Using Aggregate Data

Peter Grand (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna) and Guido Tiemann (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna) - Do Voters Represent Non-Voters? Policy-Representation Bias through Voter Abstention at the National and the EU Level.

Anne Jadot (Université de Lorraine & CEVIPOF) and Luana Russo (CEVIPOF) - Assessing flows of (non) voting: comparing insights from aggregate data, surveys and electoral records

18.30 Reception (The Queen’s College). This reception is kindly sponsored by YouGov.
19.15 Dinner (The Queen’s College)

Saturday 8th September 2012

8.15-9.15 Breakfast

9.30-11.00 Session 4  

Participation
Lecture theatre
Chair: Achim Goerres (University of Duisberg-Essen)

Lawrence LeDuc (University of Toronto) and Jon H. Pammett (Carleton University) - Consistency or Selectivity?: Patterns of Participation in British Elections

Lynn Bennie (University of Aberdeen) and Andrew Russell (University of Manchester) - Radical or Compliant? Young Party Members in Britain

Mikael Persson (University of Gothenburg) - Education Does not Cause Political Participation: Evidence From the 1970 British Cohort Study

Adrian Millican (University of Exeter), Siim Trumm (University of Exeter), Jeffrey Karp (University of Exeter) and Shaun Bowler (University of California, Riverside) - What affects civic duty? An analysis of the causes and effects of civic duty in a cross national context

Marta Cantijoch (University of Manchester), Dave Cutts (University of Manchester) and Rachel Gibson (University of Manchester) - Internet Use and Political Engagement: The Role of E-Campaigning as a Pathway to Political Participation

Polarisation and culture wars
Seminar room G
Chair: Chris Wlezien (Temple University)

William G. Jacoby (Michigan State University) – Is there a culture war? Heterogeneous value choices and American public opinion

Yphtach Lelkes (Stanford University) and Shanto Iyengar (Stanford University) - Fear and Loathing across Party Lines?  Cross-National Evidence on Party Polarization

Kyle L. Saunders (Colorado State University) and Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory Univeristy) - Party Sorting and Polarization in the American Mass Public and Political Elite

Marco Steenbergen (University of Zurich), Howard Lavine (University of Minnesota) and Christopher Johnston (Duke University) - The Ambivalent Partisan: The Causes and Consequences of Critical Loyalty in America

Candidate and party image
Seminar room A
Chair: Tim Bale (University of Sussex)

Kyle Mattes (University of Iowa) and Caitlin Milazzo (University of Exeter) - Pretty Faces, Marginal Races: Predicting Election Outcomes using Trait Assessments of British Parliamentary Candidates

David A.M. Peterson (Iowa State University) - The Dynamic Construction of Candidate Image

Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck, University of London) and Phil Cowley (University of Nottingham) - Rich man, poor man, beggar man: Wealth effects in candidate biography survey experiments

Robert Johns (University of Essex) - Why Aren't We Obsessed with Image? Party Image and Voting in British Elections

Eastern and Central Europe
Seminar room C
Chair: Anja Neundorf (University of Oxford)

Ksenia Mankowska Northmore-Ball (University of Oxford) – Increasing turnout inequality in Post-Communist Eastern Europe: economic disengagement or a progression to normalcy?

Péter Róbert (Hungarian Academy of Science) and Zsófia Papp (Hungarian Academy of Science) - Critical Elections? Party Identification and Preference at the 2010 Hungarian general elections

Nasos Roussias (University of Sheffield) - Turnout in the Early Elections of New Democracies: The Effects of Pre-Democratic Experiences and Party System Evolution

11.00-11.30 Tea/Coffee

11.30-13.00 Session 5  

Media effects
Lecture theatre
Chair: Rachel Gibson (University of Manchester)

Leonardo Baccini (Princeton University), Maria Laura Sudulich (University of Amsterdam) and Matthew Wall (Université Libre de Bruxelles) - Lost in Transmission: Evaluating Media Bias Towards the European Union

Stuart N. Soroka (McGill University), Patrick Fournier (Université de Montréal), Peter Loewen (University of Toronto) and Daniel Rubenson (Ryerson University) - News Photos and Support for Military Action

Célia Belim (Universidade Técnica de Lisboa) and Patrícia Calca (Universidade de Lisboa) - Do Politicians Read Newspapers? or,Is the Media a Political Actor? Connections Between Political and Mediatic Agendas in Portugal and United Kingdom

Evelyn Bytzek (University of Koblenz-Landau) - Media Effects on the Perception of Coalition Signals

Samantha Laycock (Goldsmiths College, University of London) - Why is there a perception gap in public services?

Campaigning effects
Seminar room G
Chair: Marianne Stewart (University of Texas at Dallas)

David Cutts (University of Manchester) Donald Webber (University of Webber), Paul Widdop (University of Manchester), Ron Johnston (University of Bristol) and Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield) - Voting Patterns, Local Campaigning and Relative Location in British Elections

David Cutts (University of Manchester), Ron Johnston (University of Bristol), Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield) and Justin Fisher (Brunel University) - Laying the foundations for electoral success: Conservative pre-campaign canvassing before the 2010 UK general election

Scott Moser (University of Texas at Austin) and Shinya Wakao (University of Texas at Austin) - Is Campaigning Local?: Campaign Strategy in the 2010 Congressional Race

Alia Middleton (University of Edinburgh) - The effectiveness of constituency campaigning in altering constituency vote share over the 1987 to 2010 period

Ignacio Lago (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Sandra Bermúdez (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Marc Guinjoan (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Kelly Rowe (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) and Pablo Simón (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) – Party Mobilization and Electoral Systems

Representation and responsiveness
Seminar room A
Chair: Catherine de Vries (University of Geneva)

Shaun Bevan (University of Mannheim) and Will Jennings (University of Southampton) - Representation, Agendas and Institutions

John Bartle (University of Essex) - Approval for the government and election outcomes, 1945-2010

Kathrin Thomas (University of Exeter) and Susan A. Banducci (University of Exeter) - Do governments really know what people think? - Assessing the validity of public opinion measures in policy responsiveness research

Laura Morales (University of Leicester), Didier Ruedin (University of Neuchâtel), Jean-Benoit Pilet (University Libre de Bruxelles), Daniel Wunderlich (University of Bath), Teresa Peintinger (University of Vienna), Virginia Ros (University of Leicester) and Guido Vangoidsenhoven (University Libre de Bruxelles) - Immigration waves, public moods, and policy responses: A comparative analysis of seven European countries.

Scotland and Wales
Seminar room C
Chair: David Denver (Lancaster University)

Roger Scully (Cardiff University) - Examining National Sentiments in Britain

Roger Scully (Cardiff University), Richard Wyn Jones (Cardiff University) and Laurence Janta-Lipinski (YouGov) - ‘…and to a lesser extent Wales’? Attitudes to Political Autonomy in Wales

Anwen Elias (Aberystwyth University) and Tomos Dafydd Davies (Aberystwyth University) - ‘Singing the Blues?’ The Conservative Party and the politics of post-devolution Wales.

Carolina Plescia (Trinity College Dublin) - Split-ticket voting investigation in sub-national elections: the Scottish Parliament elections and the Italian regional elections

13.00-14.00 Lunch

13.30-14.00 EPOP Annual General Meeting

14.00-15.30 Session 6  

Austerity
Lecture theatre
Chair: Jon Tonge (University of Liverpool)

Harold Clarke (University of Texas at Dallas), Marianne Stewart (University of Texas at Dallas), David Sanders (University of Essex) and Paul Whiteley (University of Essex) - The Politics of Austerity: Public Attitudes and the electoral consequences of the cuts agenda

Matthew Lampert (University of Cambridge), Robert R. Prechter, Jr. (Socionomics Institute), Wayne D. Parker (Emory University School of Medicine), and Deepak Goel (Socionomics Institute) - Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and Incumbency: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results

Gregory E. McAvoy (University of North Carolina at Greensboro) - Is the Public Rational? Benchmarking Collective Rationality in Economic Evaluations

Catherine E. de Vries (University of Geneva) and Sara B. Hobolt (LSE) - Do Voters Blame Governments for Social Spending Cuts? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Roundtable on the 2012 French elections
Seminar room G
Convened by Anne Jadot (Université de Lorraine & CEVIPOF)
Chair: Rachel Gibson (University of Manchester)

Jean-François Laslier (CNRS and Ecole Polytechnique), Karine van der Straeten (CNRS and Toulouse School of Economics) and André Blais (Universite de Montreal) - Vote au Pluriel: How People Vote When Offered to Vote Under Different Rules?

Jean Chiche (CEVIPOF-Sciences Po), Bruno Cautrès (CEVIPOF- Sciences Po) - Campaign dynamics and trends in candidates images : insights from a long-term online panel.

Anne Jadot (CEVIPOF & Université de Lorraine) - Are French voters ideological and/or driven by candidates traits? Results from the first French voters' engagement online application.

Bruno Cautrès (CEVIPOF- Sciences Po) & Daniel Boy (CEVIPOF-Sciences Po) - Permanences and changes in French cleavage politics: lessons from a 2012 post-presidential election study.

Innovations in the Understanding of Party System Volatility
Seminar room A
Chair: Paul Webb (University of Sussex)

Svante Ersson (Umea University) - Electoral volatility in Europe: Assessments and potential explanations for estimate differences

Kevin Deegan-Krause (Wayne State University), Tim Haughton (University of Birminghan) and Fernando Casal Bértoa (Leiden University) - Splitting the difference: New models for assessing the stability and volatility of political party systems

Sergiu Gherghina (GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) - Explaining Party Level Volatility in New European Democracies

Yves Dejaeghere (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) and Ruth Dassonneville (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) - The Impact of the Party System on Electoral Volatility: A Cross-Country Analysis of Inter-Election Switching

Descriptive representation
Seminar room C
Chair: Lisa Harrison (UWE, Bristol)

Helena Cook (University of Exeter) - I’m Other Things As Well: Descriptive Representation and Identity Politics in the United Kingdom and New Zealand

Sarah Childs (University of Bristol) and Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck College, University of London) - (S)electing Women: Seeing Mothers: Reconsidering Sex and Gender and Legislative Recruitment

Maarja Lühiste (University of Exeter) and Susan A. Banducci (University of Exeter) - Women's likelihood of viable candidacy

Robert Böhm (Center for Empirical Research in Economics and Behavioral Sciences), Bettina Rockenbach (University of California, San Diego) and Arne Weiss (Universität zu Köln) - Clean evidence on expressive voting

15.30-16.00 Tea/Coffee

16.00-17.30 Session 7  

Roundtable on the 2012 US elections: Expectations, Forecasts and Divination
Seminar room G
Chair: Christopher Carman (University of Strathclyde)

Chris Bonneau (University of Pittsburgh) - Judicial elections

Shaun Bowler (University of California, Riverside) - Initiatives and Referenda

Robert Erikson (Columbia University) - Congressional Elections

Christopher Wlezien (Temple University) - Presidential Election

Issue salience and congruence
Seminar room G
Chair: Robert Johns (University of Essex)

Matthew Lebo (Stony Brook University), Christopher Weber (Louisiana State University), Jane Green (University of Manchester), and Will Jennings (University of Southampton) - The Time Varying Effects on Issue Salience on the British Voter

Stefanie Reher (University of Oxford) – Substantive Representation and Satisfaction with Democracy in the 2009 German Federal Elections: The Case for Issue Salience Congruence

Romain Lachat (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) - Issue ownership and the vote: salience or competence?

Quinton Mayne (Harvard University) and Armen Hakhverdian (University of Amsterdam) - Does ideological congruence matter? The effect of congruence on system support in liberal democracies

India
Seminar room A
Chair: Anthony Heath (University of Manchester)

Francesca Jensenius (University of California, Berkeley) - Whose representative? Electoral quotas for Dalits, caste bias and turnout in India 1974-2006

Alistair McMillan (University of Sheffield) - Economic voting and the new middle class in Indian elections

Parashar Kulkarni (New York University) - Electoral Fraud and Strategic Electoral Reform

UK representatives and their expenses
Seminar room C
Chair: Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield)

Peter Allen (Birkbeck, University of London) - Rising to the top – Career trajectories of the 1997 General Election cohort

Michael Turner (Plymouth University) - Evidence for an Incumbency Advantage in English Local Elections. Experience Counts.

Michael Thrasher (Plymouth University), Galina Borisyuk (Plymouth University), Mary Shears (Plymouth University) and Colin Rallings (Plymouth University) - The nature of local representation: councillor activity and the pressures of re-election

Nick Vivyan (Durham University), Markus Wagner (University of Vienna) and Jessica Tarlov (LSE) - The dynamic effects of politician misconduct on democratic satisfaction: evidence from the UK Expenses Scandal

17.30-18.00 British Election Study team report
Lecture theatre

18.30 Reception (St Anne’s College). This reception is kindly sponsored by Parliamentary Affairs.
19.15 Dinner (St Anne’s College)

Sunday 9th September 2012

8.15-9.15 Breakfast

9.30-11.00 Session 8  

Preferences for redistribution
Lecture theatre
Chair: Sarah Childs (University of Bristol)

Anja Neundorf (University of Oxford) and Stuart Soroka (McGill University) - Beyond individual characteristics: Explaining generational differences in redistribution preferences

Peter Loewen (University of Toronto), Chris Dawes (New York University), and Raymond Duch (University of Oxford) - Experimental Findings on the Behavioural Foundations of Preferences and Participation

Achim Goerres (University of Duisburg-Essen) and Simon Weschle (Duke University) - Measuring and explaining conflicts in the welfare state with international and longitudinal public opinion data

Political leaders
Seminar room G
Chair: Samantha Laycock (Goldsmiths College, University of London)

Roger Mortimore (Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute) and Tomasz Mludzinski (Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute) - Love thine enemy? How satisfaction with the Government and Prime Minister affects satisfaction with the Leader of the Opposition

Laura Maria Schwirz (Trinity College Dublin) and Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin) - Non-alignment of party and leader sympathies: Do voters follow the party or the leader?

Edzia Carvalho (University of Amsterdam) and Kristi Winters (GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) - “I went with what I always do…”: A qualitative analysis of of ‘Cleggmania’ and vote choice in the 2010 British General Election

Heinz Brandenburg (University of Aberdeen) and Marcel van Egmond (University of Amsterdam) - A Shock to the System that wasn’t: Tracing Leader Debate Effects through the 2010 British General Election Campaign

Ethnic minority integration
Seminar room A
Chair: Edward Fieldhouse (University of Manchester)

Anthony Heath (University of Manchester) and Neli Demireva (University of Oxford)  - Have multicultural policies inhibited the integration of ethnic minorities: a generational perspective

David Sanders (University of Essex), Stephen Fisher (University of Oxford), Anthony Heath (University of Manchester) and Maria Sobolewska (University of Manchester) - The Political Integration of Britain’s Ethnic Minorities

Maria Sobolewska (University of Manchester) - Measuring support for terrorism: a survey experiment and an attempt at a comparison.

Anthony Mughan (Ohio State University) – Cultural Assimilation: the impossible dream?

Northern Ireland
Seminar room C
Chair: Paul Whiteley (University of Essex)

Jon Tonge (University of Liverpool) - The Zeal of the Converts: How Sinn Fein became the most enthusiastic supporters of devolved government in a UK state

John Garry (Queen's University Belfast) - Conflict Resolution Institutions, Political Accountability and Electoral Behaviour: Performance based voting in ‘very unclear’ consociational conditions

Angela Bourne (University of Roskilde) - Terrorism and Party Politics: The illegalization of Sinn Féin and Batasuna

11.00-11.30 Tea/Coffee

11.30-13.00 Session 9  

Federalism
Lecture theatre
Chair: Sergi Pardos Prado (University of Oxford)

Armen Hakhverdian (University of Amsterdam), Imke Harbers (University of Amsterdam) and Quinton Mayne (University of Harvard) - Does Decentralization increase Citizen Engagement? Evidence from Latin America

Elias Dinas (University of Oxford) and Florian Foos (University of Oxford) - The downstream effects of federalism: Electoral performance and participation in state legislatures

Pablo Barbera (New York University), Pedro Reira (European University Institute) and Elias Dinas (University of Oxford) – Does success bring about more success? Exploring the existence of coattail effects across electoral arenas in a decentralized democracy

Saundra K. Schneider (Michigan State University) and William G. Jacoby (Michigan State University) – Are Americans “Intuitive Federalists”?

Political behaviour and attitudes of ethnic minorities
Seminar room G
Chair: Maria Sobolewska (University of Manchester)

Silvia Galandini (University of Manchester) - “Residential concentration, ethnic social capital and political participation of Black Africans in Britain: a mixed-methods approach”

Mariana Skirmuntt (University of Essex) - Assessing the effects of local ethnic distribution on non-electoral participation in urban England

Nicole Martin (University of Oxford) – Do ethnic minority candidates mobilise ethnic minority voters? Evidence from the 2010 UK General Election

Stephen Driver (University of Roehampton) and Michal Garapich (University of Roehampton) - ‘Everyone for themselves’? Non-national EU citizens from eastern and central Europe in the 2012 London elections

European Integration
Seminar room A
Chair: Roger Scully (Cardiff University)

İlke Toygür (Universidad Autonoma de Madrid) – The Effect of Nationality and Political Affinity on Voting in European Parliament: British MEPs – Unity in Diversity?

Christopher Prosser (University of Oxford) – Measuring country level support for European integration: A median voter approach

Marketa Bilska (Sabanci University) - Voter Turnout in the 2009 European Elections: Media Coverage and Media Exposure as Explanatory Factors

Katjana Gatterman (University of Cologne) and Sofia Vasilopoulou (University of York) - Absent yet popular? Fringe Eurosceptic MEPs in the media 

Deliberative and direct democracy
Seminar room C
Chair: Jane Green (University of Manchester)

Paul Webb (University of Sussex) - Who is willing to deliberate, and how far will they go?

Jane Suiter (University College Cork), David Farrell (University College Dublin) and Eoin O'Malley (Dublin City University) - Differing reaction and differing capacities: Evidence from an exercise in Deliberative Democracy

Christopher Carman (University of Strathclyde) - Politics, Principles and Compromise: Public Perceptions and Evaluations of Compromise in Parliamentary Processes

13.00 Conference End

Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) Conference: Papers

Papers or presentation slides will appear here as they become available. Authors are requested to email either their paper, if possible, or slides to  epop2012@sociology.ox.ac.uk, ideally by Monday 3rd September. Please provide papers and slides in pdf format if possible.

Friday 7th September 2012

12.45-14.15 Session 1  

Reactions to diversity
Lecture theatre
Chair: Laura Morales (University of Leicester)

Carlie Fogleman (Texas A&M University) and Paul Kellstedt (Texas A&M University) - The Dynamics of Immigration Attitudes in the U.S. - pdf

Tim Bale (University of Sussex) and Rebecca Partos (University of Sussex) - “We are not in politics to ignore peoples’ worries: we are in politics to deal with them.” Why mainstream parties change policy on migration: a UK case study - pdf

Daphne Halikiopoulou (London School of Economics and Political Science), Steven Mock (University of Waterloo) and Sofia Vasilopoulou (University of York) - The civic Zeitgeist: nationalism and liberal values in the European radical right - pdf

Robert Ford (University of Manchester) - Who should receive welfare in a diverse society? Experimental evidence on the impact of ethnicity and foreign birth on willingness to provide welfare in Britain - pdf and appendix

Perceptions and effects of context
Seminar room G
Chair: Dave Cutts (University of Manchester)

Jake Bowers (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign), Daniel Rubenson (Ryerson University) and Cara Wong (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) - Maps and `Pictures in Our Heads': The Political Effects of Perceptions of Communities

Thomas M. Holbrook (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and Karen Kaufmann (University of Maryland) - Partisan context and Political Behavior in U.S. Cities - pdf

Chris W. Bonneau (University of Pittsbugh) and Damon M. Cann (Utah State University) – Individual-Level Factors and Voter Participation in Judicial Elections - pdf

Lluis Orriols (University of Girona & Juan March Institute) and Álvaro Martínez (University of Barcelona & Juan March Institute) - Ambivalence at the ballot box: The role of the political context on voting indecision - pdf

Political reform in the UK

Seminar room A
Chair: Phil Cowley (University of Nottingham)

John Curtice (University of Strathclyde) and Ben Seyd (University of Kent) - Exploring and explaining attitudes to political reform in Britain - pdf

Alan Renwick (University of Reading) - The Evolution of Electoral Reform Debate: The Case of the UK - pdf

Okan Akmehmet (University of Essex) - Why referendum? The story behind Britain’s 2011 AV referendum

Colin Rallings (Plymouth University), Michael Thrasher (Plymouth University) and David Cowling (BBC) - Mayoral referendums and elections: Uninterested electors and unknowing voters - pdf

Political representation in Europe
Seminar room C
Chair: Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham)

Hermann F.J. Schmitt (University of Manchester/University of Mannheim), Bernhard Wessels (Social Science Research Centre Berlin) and Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham) - Parties, Candidates and Voters in the 2009 Election to the European Parliament - pdf

Bruno Cautres (Sciences Po Paris) and Laurie Beaudonnet (European University Institute) - Political Retribution, the Economic crisis and the 2009 European elections - pdf

Lorenzo De Sio (LUISS Guido Carli), Christine Arnold (Maastricht University) and Eliyahu V. Sapir (Maastricht University) - Learning from second-order elections? The dynamics of issue salience during national and European elections - pdf

Federico Vegetti (University of Mannheim) - Don't blame me, I'm on your side. Party system polarization and the balance between ideology and evaluation in Europe - pdf

14.30-16.00 Session 2  

Party competition and issue positions
Lecture theatre
Chair: Andrew Russell (University of Manchester)

Jae-Jae Spoon (University of Iowa), Sara B. Hobolt (London School of Economics and Political Science) and Catherine E. De Vries (University of Geneva) - Going Green:  Explaining Issue Competition on the Environment - pdf

Line Rennwald (University of Geneva) and Geoffrey Evans (University of Oxford) - When Supply Creates Demand: Social-democratic parties’ electoral strategies and working class votes

Kostas Gemenis (University of Twente), Alexia Katsanidou (GESIS-Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) & Sofia Vasilopoulou (University of York) - The politics of anti-environmentalism: positional issue framing by the European radical right

Jane Green (University of Manchester) and Will Jennings (Southampton University) - Valence and Government Priorities: How issue ownership and issue salience shape US and U.K. policy agendas - pdf

Public opinion and survey measurement
Seminar room G
Chair: Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck, University of London)

Joe Twyman (YouGov) - How Extreme is Extremism?

Will Jennings (University of Southampton) and Christopher Wlezien (Temple University) - Measuring Public Preferences for Policy: On the Limits of ‘Most Important Problem’ - pdf

Jon Mellon (University of Oxford) - Internet Search Indices and Issue Salience: the properties of Google Trends as a measure of issue salience - pdf

Jeffrey A. Karp (University of Exeter) and Maarja Lühiste (University of Exeter) - Explaining Political Engagement with Online Panels: An Analysis of Data from the British Election Study

Elias Dinas (Univeristy of Oxford) and Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham) - Measuring party identification in multi-party democracies: A functional alternative

Boundary Commission Review
Seminar room A
Chair: Michael Thrasher (Plymouth University)
Discussant: Colin Rallings (Plymouth University)

Ron Johnston (University of Bristol) - ‘Somewhat more disruptive than we had in mind’: dislocation and the fracturing of communities in the Boundary Commission proposals - pdf

David Rossiter (University of Sheffield), Ron Johnston (University of Bristol) and Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield) - Fit for purpose? The impact of the Boundary Commission for England’s decision not to split wards on its proposed constituencies - pdf

Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield) - ‘...extremely effective in enabling public discussion’: Public Inquiries, Public Hearings and the redistribution of Parliamentary constituencies - pdf

Institutions and party systems
Seminar room C
Chair: Ben Seyd (University of Kent)

Thomas Quinn (University of Essex) - The Decline of Two-Party Systems in the United Kingdom and New Zealand

Andreas E. Murr (University of Essex) - A Tournament of Voters’ Decision Making Rules: Comparing Four Models of Citizen Forecasting - pdf

Jack Vowles (Victoria University of Wellington) - Proportional Representation Confirmed: The 2011 Electoral System Referendum in New Zealand

Robin Harding (New York University) - Explaining Party Attachments Across African Democracies - pdf

Laura Stephenson (Western University), Marian Bohl (Universität Zürich), Ekrem Karakoc (Université de Montréal), André Blais (Université de Montréal) and Hanspeter Kriesi (Universität Zürich) - Choice, Information and Compexity: Voting Behaviour in Swiss Elections - pdf

16.30-18.00 Session 3  

Roundtable on developments in British public opinion
Lecture theatre
Chair: Joe Twyman (YouGov)

David Skelton - Deputy Director and Head of Research at Policy Exchange.

Steve Van Riel - Head of Research at The CentreGround Political Communications and former Head of Research and Director of Policy at the Labour Party.

Jess Tyrrell - Deputy Director at the Centre for London.

Anthony Wells (YouGov and author of http://ukpollingreport.co.uk)

Valence voting
Seminar room G
Chair: Sara Hobolt (London School of Economics and Political Science)

Sergi Pardos-Prado (University of Oxford) - Valence voting and coalition governments

Debra Leiter (University of California, Davis) - The Conditionality of Voter Decision-Making: How Voter Sophistication Conditions the Impact of Ideological Proximity – but not the Impact of Valence – in European Electorates - pdf

Nathalie Giger (University of Mannheim) and Catherine E. De Vries (University of Oxford) – Holding Governments Accountable: Individual Heterogeneity in Performance Voting - pdf

Markus Wagner (University of Vienna) and Eva Zeglovits (University of Vienna) - Questions about party competence: insights from cognitive interviews - pdf

Spyros Kosmidis (London School of Economics and Political Science) - Electoral Accountability and Length of Office Tenure

Measuring party positions
Seminar room A
Chair: Elias Dinas (University of Oxford)

Martin Dolezal (University of Vienna) - Analysing Manifestos in their Electoral Context: A New Approach with Application to Austria 2002-2008 - pdf

Didier Ruedin (University of Neuchâtel) and Laura Morales (University of Leicester) - Obtaining Party Positions on Immigration from Party Manifestos - pdf

Zeynep Somer-Topcu (Vanderbilt University) - Voters’ Perceptual Ambiguity and Its Electoral Consequences - pdf

Turnout inequalities
Seminar room C
Chair: Alan Renwick (University of Reading)

Marius R. Busemeyer (University of Konstanz) and Achim Goerres (University of Duisberg-Essen) - Educational institutions and inequalities of voting participation in advanced industrial democracies - pdf

Peter Selb (University of Konstanz) and Marco Steenbergen (University of Zurich) - Studying the Electoral Effect of Incomplete Turnout Using Aggregate Data - pdf

Peter Grand (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna) and Guido Tiemann (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna) - Do Voters Represent Non-Voters? Policy-Representation Bias through Voter Abstention at the National and the EU Level - pdf

Anne Jadot (Université de Lorraine & CEVIPOF) and Luana Russo (CEVIPOF) - Assessing flows of (non) voting: comparing insights from aggregate data, surveys and electoral records

Saturday 8th September 2012

9.30-11.00 Session 4  

Participation
Lecture theatre
Chair: Achim Goerres (University of Duisberg-Essen)

Lawrence LeDuc (University of Toronto) and Jon H. Pammett (Carleton University) - Consistency or Selectivity?: Patterns of Participation in British Elections - pdf

Lynn Bennie (University of Aberdeen) and Andrew Russell (University of Manchester) - Radical or Compliant? Young Party Members in Britain - pdf

Mikael Persson (University of Gothenburg) - Education Does not Cause Political Participation: Evidence From the 1970 British Cohort Study - pdf

Adrian Millican (University of Exeter), Siim Trumm (University of Exeter), Jeffrey Karp (University of Exeter) and Shaun Bowler (University of California, Riverside) - What affects civic duty? An analysis of the causes and effects of civic duty in a cross national context

Marta Cantijoch (University of Manchester), Dave Cutts (University of Manchester) and Rachel Gibson (University of Manchester) -‘Internet Use and Political Engagement: The Role of E-Campaigning as a Pathway to Political Participation - pdf

Polarisation and culture wars
Seminar room G
Chair: Chris Wlezien (Temple University)

William G. Jacoby (Michigan State University) – Is there a culture war? Heterogeneous value choices and American public opinion - pdf

Yphtach Lelkes (Stanford University) and Shanto Iyengar (Stanford University) - Fear and Loathing across Party Lines?  Cross-National Evidence on Party Polarization

Kyle L. Saunders (Colorado State University) and Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory Univeristy) - Party Sorting and Polarization in the American Mass Public and Political Elite

Marco Steenbergen (University of Zurich), Howard Lavine (University of Minnesota) and Christopher Johnston (Duke University) - The Ambivalent Partisan: The Causes and Consequences of Critical Loyalty in America

Candidate and party image
Seminar room A
Chair: Tim Bale (University of Sussex)

Kyle Mattes (University of Iowa) and Caitlin Milazzo (University of Exeter) - Pretty Faces, Marginal Races: Predicting Election Outcomes using Trait Assessments of British Parliamentary Candidates

David A.M. Peterson (Iowa State University) - The Dynamic Construction of Candidate Image

Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck, University of London) and Phil Cowley (University of Nottingham) - Rich man, poor man, beggar man: Wealth effects in candidate biography survey experiments

Robert Johns (University of Essex) - Why Aren't We Obsessed with Image? Party Image and Voting in British Elections - pdf

Eastern and Central Europe
Seminar room C
Chair: Anja Neundorf (University of Oxford)

Lee Michael Savage (University of Sussex) - The varying meanings of Left and Right in Eastern Europe: Estimating party policy positions via expert surveys and manifesto content analysis

Ksenia Mankowska Northmore-Ball (University of Oxford) – Increasing turnout inequality in Post-Communist Eastern Europe: economic disengagement or a progression to normalcy? - pdf

Péter Róbert (Hungarian Academy of Science) and Zsófia Papp (Hungarian Academy of Science) - Critical Elections? Party Identification and Preference at the 2010 Hungarian general elections - pdf

Nasos Roussias (University of Sheffield) - Turnout in the Early Elections of New Democracies: The Effects of Pre-Democratic Experiences and Party System Evolution - pdf

11.30-13.00 Session 5  

Media effects
Lecture theatre
Chair: Rachel Gibson (University of Manchester)

Leonardo Baccini (Princeton University), Maria Laura Sudulich (University of Amsterdam) and Matthew Wall (Université Libre de Bruxelles) - Lost in Transmission: Evaluating Media Bias Towards the European Union - pdf and appendix

Stuart N. Soroka (McGill University), Patrick Fournier (Université de Montréal), Peter Loewen (University of Toronto) and Daniel Rubenson (Ryerson University) - News Photos and Support for Military Action

Célia Belim (Universidade Técnica de Lisboa) and Patrícia Calca (Universidade de Lisboa) - Do Politicians Read Newspapers? or,Is the Media a Political Actor? Connections Between Political and Mediatic Agendas in Portugal and United Kingdom

Evelyn Bytzek (University of Koblenz-Landau) - Media Effects on the Perception of Coalition Signals

Samantha Laycock (Goldsmiths College, University of London) - Why is there a perception gap in public services?

Campaigning effects
Seminar room G
Chair: Marianne Stewart (University of Texas at Dallas)

David Cutts (University of Manchester) Donald Webber (University of Webber), Paul Widdop (University of Manchester), Ron Johnston (University of Bristol) and Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield) - Voting Patterns, Local Campaigning and Relative Location in British Elections

David Cutts (University of Manchester), Ron Johnston (University of Bristol), Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield) and Justin Fisher (Brunel University) - Laying the foundations for electoral success: Conservative pre-campaign canvassing before the 2010 UK general election

Scott Moser (University of Texas at Austin) and Shinya Wakao (University of Texas at Austin) - Is Campaigning Local?: Campaign Strategy in the 2010 Congressional Race - pdf

Alia Middleton (University of Edinburgh) - The effectiveness of constituency campaigning in altering constituency vote share over the 1987 to 2010 period

Ignacio Lago (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Sandra Bermúdez (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Marc Guinjoan (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Kelly Rowe (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) and Pablo Simón (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) – Party Mobilization and Electoral Systems - pdf

Representation and responsiveness
Seminar room A
Chair: Catherine de Vries (University of Geneva)

Shaun Bevan (University of Mannheim) and Will Jennings (University of Southampton) - Representation, Agendas and Institutions - pdf

John Bartle (University of Essex) - Approval for the government and election outcomes, 1945-2010 - pdf

Kathrin Thomas (University of Exeter) and Susan A. Banducci (University of Exeter) - Do governments really know what people think? - Assessing the validity of public opinion measures in policy responsiveness research

Laura Morales (University of Leicester), Didier Ruedin (University of Neuchâtel), Jean-Benoit Pilet (University Libre de Bruxelles), Daniel Wunderlich (University of Bath), Teresa Peintinger (University of Vienna), Virginia Ros (University of Leicester) and Guido Vangoidsenhoven (University Libre de Bruxelles) - Immigration waves, public moods, and policy responses: A comparative analysis of seven European countries.

Scotland and Wales
Seminar room C
Chair: David Denver (Lancaster University)

Roger Scully (Cardiff University) - Examining National Sentiments in Britain - pdf

Roger Scully (Cardiff University), Richard Wyn Jones (Cardiff University) and Laurence Janta-Lipinski (YouGov) - ‘…and to a lesser extent Wales’? Attitudes to Political Autonomy in Wales

Anwen Elias (Aberystwyth University) and Tomos Dafydd Davies (Aberystwyth University) - ‘Singing the Blues?’ The Conservative Party and the politics of post-devolution Wales - pdf

Carolina Plescia (Trinity College Dublin) - Split-ticket voting investigation in sub-national elections: the Scottish Parliament elections and the Italian regional elections - pdf1 and pdf2

14.00-15.30 Session 6  

Austerity
Lecture theatre
Chair: Jon Tonge (University of Liverpool)

Harold Clarke (University of Texas at Dallas), Marianne Stewart (University of Texas at Dallas), David Sanders (University of Essex) and Paul Whiteley (University of Essex) - The Politics of Austerity: Public Attitudes and the electoral consequences of the cuts agenda

Matthew Lampert (University of Cambridge), Robert R. Prechter, Jr. (Socionomics Institute), Wayne D. Parker (Emory University School of Medicine), and Deepak Goel (Socionomics Institute) - Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and Incumbency: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results - pdf

Gregory E. McAvoy (University of North Carolina at Greensboro) - Is the Public Rational? Benchmarking Collective Rationality in Economic Evaluations - pdf

Catherine E. de Vries (University of Geneva) and Sara B. Hobolt (London School of Economics and Political Science) - Do Voters Blame Governments for Social Spending Cuts? Evidence from a Natural Experiment - pdf

Roundtable on the 2012 French elections
Seminar room G
Convened by Anne Jadot (Université de Lorraine & CEVIPOF)
Chair: Rachel Gibson (University of Manchester)

Jean-François Laslier (CNRS and Ecole Polytechnique), Karine van der Straeten (CNRS and Toulouse School of Economics) and André Blais (Universite de Montreal) - Vote au Pluriel: How People Vote When Offered to Vote Under Different Rules? - pdf

Jean Chiche (CEVIPOF-Sciences Po), Bruno Cautrès (CEVIPOF- Sciences Po) - Campaign dynamics and trends in candidates images : insights from a long-term online panel.

Anne Jadot (CEVIPOF & Université de Lorraine) - Are French voters ideological and/or driven by candidates traits? Results from the first French voters' engagement online application.

Bruno Cautrès (CEVIPOF- Sciences Po) & Daniel Boy (CEVIPOF-Sciences Po) - Permanences and changes in French cleavage politics: lessons from a 2012 post-presidential election study.

Innovations in the Understanding of Party System Volatility
Seminar room A
Chair: Paul Webb (University of Sussex)

Svante Ersson (Umea University) - Electoral volatility in Europe: Assessments and potential explanations for estimate differences - pdf

Kevin Deegan-Krause (Wayne State University), Tim Haughton (University of Birminghan) and Fernando Casal Bértoa (Leiden University) - Splitting the difference: New models for assessing the stability and volatility of political party systems

Sergiu Gherghina (GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) - Explaining Party Level Volatility in New European Democracies - pdf

Yves Dejaeghere (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) and Ruth Dassonneville (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) - The Impact of the Party System on Electoral Volatility: A Cross-Country Analysis of Inter-Election Switching - pdf

Descriptive representation
Seminar room C
Chair: Lisa Harrison (UWE, Bristol)

Helena Cook (University of Exeter) - I’m Other Things As Well: Descriptive Representation and Identity Politics in the United Kingdom and New Zealand

Sarah Childs (University of Bristol) and Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck College, University of London) - (S)electing Women: Seeing Mothers: Reconsidering Sex and Gender and Legislative Recruitment

Maarja Lühiste (University of Exeter) and Susan A. Banducci (University of Exeter) - Women's likelihood of viable candidacy - pdf

Robert Böhm (Center for Empirical Research in Economics and Behavioral Sciences), Bettina Rockenbach (University of California, San Diego) and Arne Weiss (Universität zu Köln) - Clean evidence on expressive voting - pdf

16.00-17.30 Session 7  

Roundtable on the 2012 US elections: Expectations, Forecasts and Divination
Seminar room G
Chair: Christopher Carman (University of Strathclyde)

Chris Bonneau (University of Pittsburgh) - Judicial elections

Shaun Bowler (University of California, Riverside) - Initiatives and Referenda

Robert Erikson (Columbia University) - Congressional Elections - pdf1 and pdf2

Christopher Wlezien (Temple University) - Presidential Election

Issue salience and congruence
Seminar room G
Chair: Robert Johns (University of Essex)

Matthew Lebo (Stony Brook University), Christopher Weber (Louisiana State University), Jane Green (University of Manchester), and Will Jennings (University of Southampton) - The Time Varying Effects on Issue Salience on the British Voter

Stefanie Reher (University of Oxford) – Substantive Representation and Satisfaction with Democracy in the 2009 German Federal Elections: The Case for Issue Salience Congruence - pdf

Romain Lachat (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) - Issue ownership and the vote: salience or competence? - pdf

Quinton Mayne (Harvard University) and Armen Hakhverdian (University of Amsterdam) - Does ideological congruence matter? The effect of congruence on system support in liberal democracies

India
Seminar room A
Chair: Anthony Heath (University of Manchester)

Francesca Jensenius (University of California, Berkeley) - Whose representative? Electoral quotas for Dalits, caste bias and turnout in India 1974-2006

Alistair McMillan (University of Sheffield) - Economic voting and the new middle classin Indian elections

Parashar Kulkarni (New York University) - Electoral Fraud and Strategic Electoral Reform - pdf

UK representatives and their expenses
Seminar room C
Chair: Charles Pattie (University of Sheffield)

Peter Allen (Birkbeck, University of London) - Rising to the top – Career trajectories of the 1997 General Election cohort

Michael Turner (Plymouth University) - Evidence for an Incumbency Advantage in English Local Elections. Experience Counts - pdf

Michael Thrasher (Plymouth University), Galina Borisyuk (Plymouth University), Mary Shears (Plymouth University) and Colin Rallings (Plymouth University) - The nature of local representation: councillor activity and the pressures of re-election - pdf

Nick Vivyan (Durham University), Markus Wagner (University of Vienna) and Jessica Tarlov (London School of Economics and Political Science) - The dynamic effects of politician misconduct on democratic satisfaction: evidence from the UK Expenses Scandal - pdf

Sunday 9th September 2012

9.30-11.00 Session 8  

Preferences for redistribution
Lecture theatre
Chair: Sarah Childs (University of Bristol)

Anja Neundorf (University of Oxford) and Stuart Soroka (McGill University) - Beyond individual characteristics: Explaining generational differences in redistribution preferences - pdf

Peter Loewen (University of Toronto), Chris Dawes (New York University), and Raymond Duch (University of Oxford) - Experimental Findings on the Behavioural Foundations of Preferences and Participation

Achim Goerres (University of Duisburg-Essen) and Simon Weschle (Duke University) - Measuring and explaining conflicts in the welfare state with international and longitudinal public opinion data - pdf

Political leaders
Seminar room G
Chair: Samantha Laycock (Goldsmiths College, University of London)

Roger Mortimore (Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute) and Tomasz Mludzinski (Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute) - Love thine enemy? How satisfaction with the Government and Prime Minister affects satisfaction with the Leader of the Opposition - pdf

Laura Maria Schwirz (Trinity College Dublin) and Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin) - Non-alignment of party and leader sympathies: Do voters follow the party or the leader? - pdf

Edzia Carvalho (University of Amsterdam) and Kristi Winters (GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) - “I went with what I always do…”: A qualitative analysis of of ‘Cleggmania’ and vote choice in the 2010 British General Election - pdf1 and pdf2

Heinz Brandenburg (University of Aberdeen) and Marcel van Egmond (University of Amsterdam) - A Shock to the System that wasn’t: Tracing Leader Debate Effects through the 2010 British General Election Campaign

Ethnic minority integration
Seminar room A
Chair: Edward Fieldhouse (University of Manchester)

Anthony Heath (University of Manchester) and Neli Demireva (University of Oxford)  - Have multicultural policies inhibited the integration of ethnic minorities: a generational perspective - pdf

David Sanders (University of Essex), Stephen Fisher (University of Oxford), Anthony Heath (University of Manchester) and Maria Sobolewska (University of Manchester) - The Political Integration of Britain’s Ethnic Minorities - pdf

Maria Sobolewska (University of Manchester) - Measuring support for terrorism: a survey experiment and an attempt at a comparison - pdf

Anthony Mughan (Ohio State University) – Cultural Assimilation: the impossible dream? - pdf

Northern Ireland
Seminar room C
Chair: Paul Whiteley (University of Essex)

Jon Tonge (University of Liverpool) - The Zeal of the Converts: How Sinn Fein became the most enthusiastic supporters of devolved government in a UK state - pdf1 and pdf2

John Garry (Queen's University Belfast) - Conflict Resolution Institutions, Political Accountability and Electoral Behaviour: Performance based voting in ‘very unclear’ consociational conditions

Angela Bourne (University of Roskilde) - Terrorism and Party Politics: The illegalization of Sinn Féin and Batasuna - pdf

11.30-13.00 Session 9  

Federalism
Lecture theatre
Chair: Sergi Pardos Prado (University of Oxford)

Armen Hakhverdian (University of Amsterdam), Imke Harbers (University of Amsterdam) and Quinton Mayne (University of Harvard) - Does Decentralization increase Citizen Engagement? Evidence from Latin America

Elias Dinas (University of Oxford) and Florian Foos (University of Oxford) - The downstream effects of federalism: Electoral performance and participation in state legislatures - pdf

Pablo Barbera (New York University), Pedro Reira (European University Institute) and Elias Dinas (University of Oxford) – Parliamentary Representation and Electoral Success: Beginning a Journey of Thousand Votes with a Single Step

Saundra K. Schneider (Michigan State University) and William G. Jacoby (Michigan State University) – Are Americans “Intuitive Federalists”? - pdf

Political behaviour and attitudes of ethnic minorities
Seminar room G
Chair: Maria Sobolewska (University of Manchester)

Silvia Galandini (University of Manchester) - “Residential concentration, ethnic social capital and political participation of Black Africans in Britain: a mixed-methods approach” - pdf

Mariana Skirmuntt (University of Essex) - Ethnic segregation and collective political action in urband England - pdf

Nicole Martin (University of Oxford) – Do ethnic minority candidates mobilise ethnic minority voters? Evidence from the 2010 UK General Election - pdf

Stephen Driver (University of Roehampton) and Michal Garapich (University of Roehampton) - ‘Everyone for themselves’? Non-national EU citizens from eastern and central Europe in the 2012 London elections - paper and slides

European Integration
Seminar room A
Chair: Roger Scully (Cardiff University)

İlke Toygür (Universidad Autonoma de Madrid) – The Effect of Nationality and Political Affinity on Voting in European Parliament: British MEPs – Unity in Diversity?

Christopher Prosser (University of Oxford) – Measuring country level support for European integration: A median voter approach - pdf

Marketa Bilska (Sabanci University) - Voter Turnout in the 2009 European Elections: Media Coverage and Media Exposure as Explanatory Factors - pdf

Katjana Gatterman (University of Cologne) and Sofia Vasilopoulou (University of York) - Absent yet popular? Fringe Eurosceptic MEPs in the media 

Deliberative and direct democracy
Seminar room C
Chair: Jane Green (University of Manchester)

Paul Webb (University of Sussex) - Who is willing to deliberate, and how far will they go?- pdf

Jane Suiter (University College Cork), David Farrell (University College Dublin) and Eoin O'Malley (Dublin City University) - Differing reactions and differing capacities: Evidence from an exercise in Deliberative Democracy - pdf

Christopher Carman (University of Strathclyde) - Politics, Principles and Compromise: Public Perceptions and Evaluations of Compromise in Parliamentary Processes

07 Sep @10:00

EPOP 2012

Date: 10:00 on Fri, 07 Sep 2012 - Sun, 09 Sep 2012

Website: http://www.psa.ac.uk/psa-communities/specialist-groups/elections-public-opinion-and-parties-epop

Contact: epop2012@sociology.ox.ac.uk

Contact(s)
Name:
Steve Fisher

EPOP brings together people interested in the study of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. It has more than 100 members, including media commentators, leading opinion pollsters and national party officials as well as academics.

The 2012 Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) conference will be held at the University of Oxford, from 7th to 9th September. Registration has closed.

The Twitter hashtag for the conference is #EPOP2012. Tweets on this are at: https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23EPOP2012